Slower Price Rises in Commodity Markets

The rise in commodity prices continues due to strong demand from emerging economies in Asia. But not all prices are going up. Several industrial raw materials seem to have peaked earlier this year. Is this the beginning of a general change in price direction?     

Corrigendum to “On randomized matching mechanisms” [Economic Theory 8(1996)377–381]

Ma (in Econ. Theory 8, 377–381, 1996) studied the random order mechanism, a matching mechanism suggested by Roth and Vande Vate (Econometrica 58, 1475–1480, 1990) for marriage markets. By means of an example he showed that the random order mechanism does not always reach all stable matchings. Although Ma's (1996) result is true, we show that the probability distribution he presented – and therefore the proof of his Claim 2 – is not correct. The mistake in the calculations by Ma (1996) is due to the fact that even though the example looks very symmetric, some of the calculations are not as “symmetric.” We thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. B. Klaus’s and F. Klijn’s research was supported by Ramón y Cajal contracts of the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología. The work of the authors was also partially supported through the Spanish Plan Nacional I+D+I (BEC2002-02130 and SEJ2005-01690) and the Generalitat de Catalunya (SGR2005-00626 and the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA).     

Land Sales and Rental Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam*

Impact and desirability of land transfers in post‐socialist‐transition economies have been subject of considerable debate. We use data from Vietnam to identify factors conducive to the development of land markets and to assess potentially differential impacts of rental and sales. Results show that both rental and sales transfer land to more productive producers but that rental is more important for the poor to access land that becomes available as the non‐farm economy develops. The fact that secure land rights significantly increase supply of land to the rental market suggests that government has a key role in facilitating emergence and functioning of efficiency‐enhancing land markets.     

Future generations: Economic, legal and institutional aspects

In economics, the issue of ‘future generations’ is mainly related to the environmental problems of resource consumption and pollution and their distribution over long time horizons. This paper critically discusses fundamental concepts in economics, such as efficiency and optimality, in relation to the incorporation of future generations in present day decision-making. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and discounting are used as a starting point and criticized for its inherent flaws such as incommensurability of values and its tendency to hide rather than reveal underlying values which are assumed to be fixed. We then investigate alternative approaches, in which, unlike in CBA, the preferences are not assumed to be a priori but must be constructed. Thus, interest groups or individuals must sit down together and figure out what things seem to be worth. The aim is to involve all interested parties in planning for the future.Similarly, on a national and regional level, increasingly stakeholder processes, deliberative and interest group procedures are used to develop strategies and visions for resource management and conservation. A similar case can be made for institutions at the international level. The legal examples provided in this paper show that rather than only installing an institution such as the guardian for the future on the global level, more ‘democratized’ bottom up approaches might be more appropriate.     

A forecasting comparison of some var techniques

Higher dimensional multivariate time series models suffer from the problem of over-parametrisation which impairs their forecasting performance. Starting from such unrestricted vector autoregressive models the paper discusses two ways to cope with this difficulty. The first approach reduces the number of free parameters by applying a subset modelling strategy. The second approach takes a Bayesian point of view by formulating ‘priors’ which are then combined with sample information, but leaving the original specification unaltered. Using Austrian quarterly macroeconomic time series a comparative study is undertaken by running alternative forecasting exercises. Both methods improve out-of-sample forecasting performance substantially at the cost of some bias in ex-post simulations. Comparing the ex-ante predictions of the two approaches, the former does better at short horizons whereas the latter gains as the forecast horizon lengthens.     

Wirtschaftliche Renaissance der Städte?

Nach Jahrzehnten der Suburbanisierung wird in vielen L?ndern ein Trend zurück in die St?dte beobachtet. Europas St?dte wachsen wieder. W?chst die Besch?ftigung auch in deutschen St?dten und Gemeinden? Wie beeinflusst die lokale Branchenstruktur die st?dtische Besch?ftigtenentwicklung? Wirkt sich eher eine Spezialisierung oder eine Diversifizierung der lokalen Branchenstruktur positiv auf die wirtschaftliche Prosperit?t aus?